Relative risk of increased mortality during all ECEs
Relative risk of increased mortality during early season ECEs
Relative risk of increased mortality during late season ECEs
Relative risk of increased mortality during short duration ECEs (less than 8 days)
Relative risk of increased mortality during long duration ECEs (more than 8 days)
Relative risk of increased mortality during less extreme ECEs
Relative risk of increased mortality during more extreme ECEs
Relative risk of increased mortality during all ECEs for individuals older than 64
Relative risk of increased mortality during early season ECEs for individuals older than 64
Cumulative relative risk of increased mortality following the onset of an ECE in Atlanta
Relative risk of increased mortality for all cities and categories
How does extreme cold impact human health?
Extreme cold events (ECEs) are similar to cold air outbreaks as they are characterized by long periods of extreme cold but without the spatial extent criterion. While extreme heat has a more immediate impact on human health, the impacts of ECEs on human health tends to persist for several weeks after the onset of the event, making the true impact of ECEs less obvious.
Project Overview
This study utilizes a Distributed Lag Non-Linear Model with a 30-day lag to determine the cumulative effects of extreme cold events (ECEs) on mortality across 32 cities in the United States for the period of 1975–2010. ECEs are divided into specific categories based on duration, magnitude, and timing of occurrence. Mortality is divided into all-age mortality as well as mortality of individuals >64 years old. The findings suggest a strong relationship between a city's latitude as well as the timing of an ECE with mortality. Early season ECEs result in a much higher relative risk (RR) of increased mortality, particularly in cities with higher mean winter temperatures, while the RR of mortality of individuals >64 was consistently higher for each city. This study suggests early season ECEs should receive enhanced preparedness efforts as individuals may be particularly vulnerable when not acclimatized to extreme cold. For more information, check out the ARTICLE.